ENERGY OUTLOOK - THE POTENTIAL MARKET FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES

 

    

ABSTRACT

The world is looking at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Transitioning from transportation systems that rely on fossil fuels to more environmentally friendly technology is the goal of governments across the globe. Various governments put forth plans to outlaw vehicles that run on fossil fuels by 2030. Coupled by various governments’ incentives to promote adoption of electric vehicles, the electric vehicle market has seen a tremendous growth over the past decade. However, the global pandemic due to Covid-19 and subsequent global lockdowns hampered supply chain and manufacturing logistics. The electric car market is back on the rise following the lifting of lockdowns and is expected to increase exponentially, especially with the rising global fuel prices due to stale geopolitical environment i.e. the Russia-Ukrainian war.

 ENERGY OUTLOOK – THE POTENTIAL MARKET FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Climate Change is the most critical threat facing planet earth at present. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes that modern civilization depends upon have raised atmospheric CO₂ levels, warming the planet. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the transportation sector is the leading source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States (U.S.), and petroleum is the main source of energy for this sector. In 2020, petroleum products accounted for about 90% of the total U.S. transportation sector energy use [1].

Mitigation or reducing climate change as well as adaptation to it, which involves adapting to life in a changing climate, are pushing the world to adopt usage of electric vehicles (EVs). The EV is considered as the energy transition technology towards a more sustainable and environmentally friendly transportation system globally. To meet the long-term targets for climate change mitigation and reduction of petroleum use, governments around the world have set goals to increase EVs market share. Global EV sales reached 6,75 million units in 2021, 108 % more than in 2020 [2].

EVs are divided into three:

    a)      Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs), which are dual-powered vehicles that utilize electric motor and Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) for propulsion. 

    b)      Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) are a sub-category of HEVs. However, these are plugged to the larger electricity supply system for charging and use both electric motor and ICE for propulsion.

    c)      Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) are purely electric motor vehicles powered by batteries, which can also be charged from the larger electric supply.

The following table from EV-Volumes.com shows the global sales of PHEVs and BEVs from 2013 to 2021. 

 

Figure 1: Global PHEVs and BEVs Sales ('000s) Source: https://www.ev-volumes.com/

 Electric cars have surged ever since they debuted on the commercial markets during the first half of the decade. Only about 17 000 electric cars were on the world’s roads in 2010 [3]. However, during the past 24 months, the global car sales experienced an unprecedented drop since SARS-CoV-2, the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19, was detected in Wuhan, China, in late 2019 and set off a global pandemic. Most countries around the world instituted lockdown measures to beat the pandemic. These global lockdowns incapacitated manufacturing facilities, supply chains, and consumer demand.

During the second half of 2020 governments across the globe started relaxing these lockdown measures, and there was a ripple effect on the automotive market. For electric cars, monthly sales surpassed those between July and December in 2019 in every month in all large markets including China, the European Union, India, Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States, despite second waves of the pandemic [4]. Despite the challenges of 2019 and 2020, global EV sales improved in 2021 as shown by the chart below.

 

Figure 2: Global monthly Plug-in vehicle sales from 2019 to 2021. Source: https://www.ev-volumes.com/

At present, China leads the global EV sales, seconded by Germany. According to data on the EV-volumes.com on growth of EV sales since 2012, China’s sales emerged in 2019 and 2020. Pure electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (China calls them "new energy vehicles" or NEVs) are expected to account for 40 percent of 38 million sales in 2030, or about 15 million units [5]. The government extended electric car subsidies for a further two years after the pandemic broke out, albeit with a planned reduction of 10% in 2021, and 30% in 2022 [6]. The Chinese EV market is set to reach more growth in 2022 resulting from consumer preferences for the new model offerings, residual national subsidies, and Chinese government’s preferential treatment for EVs. At 25%, Germany had by far the highest market share among large European markets, followed by the United Kingdom and France (both around 15%), Italy (8.8%) and Spain (6.5%) [6]. EIA reports that in the United States electric car market in 2021 saw a more than double sales to surpass half a million.

The global electric car market however is not evenly spread across countries. China, Europe, and the United States account for roughly two-thirds of the overall car market but around 90% of electric car sales [6]. Governments have a key role to play in driving the global electric car markets by formulating policies that promote use of EVs. Over the course of 2020 and 2021, many governments set targets to phase out sales of internal combustion engine cars within the next two decades, as did several car manufacturers [6].

 

 

Figure 3: BEV + PHEV Sales and Percentage Growth. Source: https://www.ev-volumes.com/

 The initial cost of procuring an electric vehicle still exceeds that of their traditional counterparts. The additional costs of plug-in hybrid and fully electric cars compared to regular ICE cars largely depend on the high costs of batteries [7]. However, the running costs of an electric vehicle are narrowing this gap. As the global prices of diesel or gasoline are soaring due to geopolitical factors like the Russia-Ukrainian war, the cost difference between traditional vehicles and their electrical counterparts is narrowing. Economic indicators, which include total cost of ownership (TCO), least cost, net present value (NPV), payback period (PBP), internal rate of return (IRR), and return on investment (ROI) are constantly beginning may begin to favor EVs.

Moving parts in EVs are fewer than in ICE vehicles. This leads to minimal maintenance costs for EVs compared to traditional cars. The EV drivetrain composed of electronics, motor, battery do not require regular maintenance. The estimated scheduled maintenance cost for a light-duty battery-electric vehicle (BEV) totals 6.1 cents per mile, while a conventional internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) totals 10.1 cents per mile [8].

HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs do improve fuel economy and lower fuel costs. In 2019, the United States imported about 3% of the petroleum it consumed, and the transportation sector accounts for approximately 30% of total U.S. energy needs and 70% of U.S. petroleum consumption [9]. “In 2021, the United States consumed an average of about 19.78 million barrels of petroleum per day, or a total of about 7.22 billion barrels of petroleum. This was an increase in consumption of about 1.6 million barrels per day over consumption in 2020. The increase was largely the result of the economy recovering from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic [10].” However, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that there have been varying sales of motor gasoline since 2020. This variability is attributed to changes in driving activity, population changes, employment, and the fact that more people are working from home. EIA goes further to state that increased sales of HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs, which consume less, or no gasoline compared with ICE contributed to the gasoline sales variability. Although still low as a percentage of the total light-duty vehicle fleet, sales of these vehicles were 5.4% of total sales in 2020 and were 11% of total sales in the fourth quarter of 2021, up from 2.9% in 2015 and 2.4% in 2010 [11].

The costs for solar photovoltaics, wind, and battery storage have plummeted during the last decade. “The fundamental driver of this change is that renewable energy technologies follow learning curves, which means that with each doubling of the cumulative installed capacity their price declines by the same fraction. The price of electricity from fossil fuel sources however does not follow learning curves so that we should expect that the price difference between expensive fossil fuels and cheap renewables will become even larger in the future [12].” However, shipping constraints and other supply chain challenges due to Covid-19 pandemic resulted in trade instability and led to price increases. The utility scale solar market faced a host of challenges in 2021 as the pandemic wreaked havoc on international supply chains and labor availability, pushing prices to their highest levels in three years [13]. In 2022 these supply chain challenges are expected to normalize as countries have lifted lockdowns and solar manufacturing industries are back on track. Price of electricity will therefore remain low and offer a cost competitive advantage on the traditional vehicles that use fuel which is facing global rising costs.

The European Union has given its vehicle manufactures limits on emissions. This limitation is calculated based on the total number of vehicles sold. Traditional vehicle manufactures are therefore switching to electric vehicles to avoid heavy fines. Various governments, including the United Kingdom, have brought forward plans to outlaw the sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2030. This has increased interest in electric vehicles and new companies are joining the EV industry. This will lead to growth in supply of electric vehicles and in the process lower the cost of EVs.

 CONCLUSION

The market for electric vehicles is growing owing to an increasing demand for environmentally friendly automobiles to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Implementation of favorable government policies that offer several benefits, including tax exemptions, subsidies, low buying costs and free charging facilities are providing a boost to the market growth.  However, the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns that took place since 2019 affected the manufacturing logistics and supply chain. This hampered the growth of the electric vehicle industry. However, since the world saw the lifting of lockdowns, the EV market is on the rise more than before. The recent geopolitical instability due to the Russian-Ukrainian war which has affected the price of crude oil is an opportunity for the electric vehicle industry as more users may consider transitioning from internal combustion engine propelled vehicles to electric motor propelled counterparts.

References

[1]	U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Use of energy explained - Energy use for transportation," EIA, 17 May 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/use-of-energy/transportation.php#:~:text=Petroleum%20is%20the%20main%20source,in%20natural%20gas%20pipeline%20compressors.. [Accessed 09 April 2022].
[2]	R. Irle, "Global EV Sales for 2021," EV Volumes.com, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.ev-volumes.com/. [Accessed 09 May 2022].
[3]	International Energy Agency, "Global EV Outlook 2020," IEA, 2020.
[4]	G. Marine and P. Leornado, "How global electric car sales defied Covid-19 in 2020," IEA, 28 January 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-global-electric-car-sales-defied-covid-19-in-2020. [Accessed 10 April 2022].
[5]	J. D. Michael, "China Aims To Be No. 1 Globally In EVs, Autonomous Cars By 2030," Forbes, 14 December 2016. [Online]. Available: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldunne/2016/12/14/chinas-automotive-2030-blueprint-no-1-globally-in-evs-autonomous-cars/?sh=4b7356421c6e. [Accessed 10 April 2022].
[6]	P. Leonardo and G. Timur, "Electric cars fend off supply challenges to more than double global sales," IEA, 30 January 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/electric-cars-fend-off-supply-challenges-to-more-than-double-global-sales. [Accessed 11 April 2022].
[7]	V. Oscar van, S. B. Anne, K. Takeshi, d. B. Machteld van and F. André, "Energy use, cost and CO2 emissions of electric cars," 15 February 2011. [Online]. Available: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037877531001726X?via%3Dihub. [Accessed 10 April 2022].
[8]	Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, "FOTW #1190, June 14, 2021: Battery-Electric Vehicles Have Lower Scheduled Maintenance Costs than Other Light-Duty Vehicles," U.S. Department of Energy, 14 June 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1190-june-14-2021-battery-electric-vehicles-have-lower-scheduled#:~:text=The%20estimated%20scheduled%20maintenance%20cost,totals%2010.1%20cents%20per%20mile.. [Accessed 11 April 2022].
[9]	U.S. Department of Energy, "Electric Vehicle Benefits and Considerations," U.S Department of Energy, [Online]. Available: https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_benefits.html#:~:text=Hybrid%20and%20plug%2Din%20electric,fuel%20costs%2C%20and%20reduce%20emissions.. [Accessed 11 April 2022].
[10]	U.S. Energy Information Administration, "How much oil is consumed in the United States?," EIA, 09 March 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=33&t=6. [Accessed 11 April 2022].
[11]	U.S. Energy Information Administration, "This Week in Petroleum," EIA, 06 April 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/archive/2022/220406/includes/analysis_print.php. [Accessed 11 April 2022].
[12]	R. Max, "Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?," Our World in Data, 01 December 2020. [Online]. Available: https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth. [Accessed 11 April 2022].
[13]	Solar Energy Industry Association, "Solar Industry Research Data," SEIA, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.seia.org/solar-industry-research-data. [Accessed 11 April 2022].

 

 

 

 

BATTERY ENERGY STORAGE FOR DISTRIBUTION APPLICATIONS

 Abstract—Energy storage systems are used in different ways to achieve energy management of electric power systems. Batteries are the most important devices to build energy storage systems as they are rechargeable. Battery Energy Storage Systems are therefore finding their way in Distribution Electric Power System applications. This paper   illustrates some of the ways in which Battery Energy Storage Systems are applied in Distribution Power System.

I.     INTRODUCTION

The Electric Power System (EPS) has evolved from being hierarchical with respect to power generation, transmission, and distribution to being integrated. The modern-day EPS incorporates bidirectional power flows, and electric power through Distributed Generation (DG), is also being generated at load centers within the distribution network. Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), both in stationary and mobile forms, are finding their application within this revolutionized EPS. Integration of BESS into the Distribution Electric Power System (DEPS) can be said to target two main goals, namely, Distribution Infrastructure Services (DIS) and Customer Energy Management Services (CEMS) applications.

 

Distribution Infrastructure means the physical equipment used to distribute electric power at voltages below 38,000 volts, including but not limited to poles, primary lines, secondary lines, service drops, transformers, and Meters [1]. Application of BESS to Distribution Infrastructure can take the form of Uninterruptible Power Supply for Control and Instrumentation, Distribution Upgrade Deferral, Voltage Support, and Outage Mitigation. DEPSs Control and Instrumentation applications require uninterruptible power supply to the Intelligent Electronic Devices (IEDs) in equipment like Remote Terminal Units (RTUs) and Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs) to achieve operational continuity. Distribution Upgrade Deferral can involve installation BESS downstream from the nearly overloaded Distribution node to provide enough incremental capacity to defer the need for a large investment in distribution equipment reinforcement. BESS can also provide voltage support to DEPS by addressing issues relating to overvoltage and undervoltage conditions. BESS outage mitigation application can involve absorption of extra power during light load periods and supplying additional power during high load conditions.

 

BESS Customer Energy Management Services applications in DEPS on the other hand involve utilities meeting customer expectations of Power Quality, Power Reliability, Retail electric energy time-shift, and Time-of-Use (TOU) Cost Management and Demand Charge Management. Integration of renewable and distributed energy technologies onto the DEPS introduces challenges of maintaining power quality, as well as balancing supply and demand. At the same time, reducing and optimizing energy consumption is key to both keeping overall energy costs down and meeting sustainability goals.

 

II.     DISTRIBUTION INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES APPLICATIONS OF BESS

A.     Uninterruptible Power Supply for Control and Instrumentation

Modern electrical power systems are highly automated and use microprocessors in IEDs imbedded in equipment like RTUs and PLCs. To deliver secure, continuous, reliable, and quality electric power supply to customers in the safest manner possible, the DEPS incorporates these electronic and logic devices within its architecture for Protection and Control applications. Uninterruptible power supply to these protection and control devises is of utmost importance. Battery storage therefore finds its way into these ancillary services for DEPS.

B.     Loss Minimization

Many DEPS have radial structure of their feeders. These radial feeders can have a large current to voltage ratio which results in high quantity of power losses in a distribution system. These power losses can be reduced by optimal allocation of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) complete with BESS. Power loss in each branch is the measure of squared value of current flowing into the branch, and energy storage shifts some of this current to a low demand period decreasing the resistive losses [2]. 

 

C.     Distribution Upgrade Deferral

DEPS expand at rates dictated by economic and demographic factors. Load forecasting and planning requirements for DEPS feeder upgrades or new installations become paramount to avoid exceeding the original thermal ampacity limitations of feeders’ line conductor or associated transformers. By utilizing the Battery Energy Storage for peak shaving, BESS on selected locations at the substation or along the distribution feeder would be used to relieve thermal stress to various pieces of equipment, such as substation transformers or distribution conductors [3]. Aging DEPS equipment can also have its lifespan extended by lowering the load it services using BESS. A key value proposition for this application is that a small amount of storage can allow the utility to delay the need for expensive, demand-growth-related DEPS equipment upgrades or reduce demand served by existing DEPS equipment such that the equipment’s life is extended.

 

The common methodology used for developing an effective Distribution Upgrade Deferral program involves development of engineering and financial model that provides guidelines for practical storage deployment and assesses business benefits of BESS as a potential solution for capacity and operational issues.  The methodology can rely on:

·         Detailed engineering analysis of the storage benefits on the utility’s distribution system.

·         Developed and validated repeatable and scalable models and control algorithms.

·         A specified timeframe of stochastic cost projections for selected battery storage technologies.

·         Detailed costs-benefit analysis for the battery type to be used.

 

It is crucial that the BESS must be located downstream from the affected equipment so that it would qualify as a DER. Usually upgrade deferral may only be applied for a very small portion of the year because peak demand may only be experienced during the most extreme peaks like the hottest days. When system upgrade becomes less expensive compared to BESS application if peak demand is growing quickly and requires large amount of storage needed to continue to defer the upgrade, the benefit would diminish rapidly after just a few years. Mobile BESS can be moved and used for deferral or life extension elsewhere. Stationary BESS may also be re-used for other benefits.

 

D.     Voltage Support

Variable energy resources like photovoltaic and wind can cause power and voltage fluctuations. If power generation from these resources significantly exceeds local load demand, it can lead to unacceptable voltage rise at a load bus. These voltage fluctuations can be problematic for DEPS Controllers to manage.

 

Voltage regulation involves controlling voltage magnitudes at all buses of the distribution network to be within the permissible limits. In particular, quick and accurate voltage control becomes primarily important in networks with high PV generation because transient cloud conditions challenge traditional voltage control schemes and can cause frequent voltage and power fluctuations [4]. BESS can help in DEPS voltage regulation processes to solve the voltage deviation problems in LV distribution networks with high penetration of variable resources. For instance, a distributed control based on a consensus algorithm for buses voltage regulation can be applied, where a local control scheme is employed to regulate the state of charge (SoC) of each BESS within desired SoC range. A similar approach but using coordinated control strategy combining a local droop-based control method and a distributed control scheme based on consensus algorithms, with each of which having specific objectives in regulating the charge/discharge of BESS, can help ensuring that bus voltages remain within specified limits.

E.     Outage Mitigation

Natural disasters, which have been aggravated by climate change, can lead to large-scale power outages, and affect critical infrastructure in the process, causing social and economic damages. Improving power grid resilience can help mitigate the damages caused by these events [5]. Resilience has been defined as the ability to reduce the magnitude and/or duration of disruptive events, which includes the capability to anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and/or rapidly recover from a potentially disruptive event.

 

BESS can enhance DEPS resilience by providing localized support to critical loads during an outage. Mobile BESS can further provide operational flexibility to support geographically dispersed loads across an outage area.

           

III.     CUSTOMER ENERGY MANAGEMENT SERVICES APPLICATION OF BESS

A.     Power Quality

Power Quality (PQ) constitutes Voltage Quality, Current Quality, the Quality of Power Supply, and the Quality of Power Consumption. Electricity customers expect to be supplied with power of good quality in accordance with standards and guidelines for their specific region e.g., ANSI C84.1. Poor power quality is attributed due to the various disturbances like voltage sag, swell, impulsive, and oscillatory transients, multiple notches, momentary interruption, harmonics, and voltage flickers [6]. Very large and fluctuating loads on distribution feeders can cause voltage sags and variations which can also affect other customers on the same feeder. BESS can output active and reactive power at the same time and have the four-quadrant operation ability thus can play an important role in the power quality management of distribution network [7].

 

Most industrial automation devices are very sensitive to voltage variations and system harmonics. Customers’ behind-the-meter BESSs can be used to mitigate power quality issues for local loads, over and above Demand Charge Management applications.

 

B.     Power Reliability

Power reliability can be defined as the degree to which the performance of the elements in a bulk system result in electricity being delivered to customers within accepted standards and in the amount desired [8]. The degree of reliability may be measured by the frequency, duration, and magnitude of adverse effects on the electric supply [9]. Reliability quantifies the likelihood of a system to function as specified, under given conditions, over a given duration. BESS localized in load centers can be used to achieve power reliability for customers as an alternative source of supply to the main grid.  

C.     Retail electric energy time-shift

Distribution System Operators (DSOs) can optimize the use of DG and enable customers to participate in various Demand Side Management (DSM) programs like Demand Response (DR). DR is a wholesale market program that energy customers can participate in to earn money for reducing electricity use during peak times. In general, DR includes all planned electricity consumption pattern modifications by end-use customers that are intended to modify the timing and/or the level of their electricity consumption in response to incentive payments or to changes in the price signal over time [10]. DR is a critical measure that a utility can apply to maintain grid reliability and reduce peak electricity prices. However, customers, especially commercial and industrial, may not have the flexibility to adjust load if they are to participate in DR exercise the traditional way. BESS storage gives customers the flexibility to participate in DR programs without affecting their operations. BESS can function automatically by processing DR notifications and take over customer’s local load during utility’s peak hours. This would ensure that there are no disruptions to domestic routines, business and/or production processes of a customer.

D.     Time-of-Use (TOU) Cost Management and Demand Charge Management (DCM)

A customer can be charged for both electricity energy consumption with respect to time in kilowatt-hours (kWh) as well as peak power demanded in kilowatt (kW). The charge on peak power demanded is called Demand Charge (DC). On the other hand, utilities use a Time-of-Use (TOU) pricing structure by allocating higher electricity prices with periods of higher demand. Using storage devices, TOU management can reduce energy charges via energy time-shifting and price arbitrage, while DCM can reduce demand charges via peak load shifting [11].

 

A customer can use BESS for TOU management to reduce energy charges through energy time-shifting and price arbitrage, as well as DCM to reduce demand charges by peak load shifting. BESS can be charged during low electricity prices and discharged to offset energy use when prices are high. This would result in reduced net energy charges. Similarly, in DCM applications, storage devices are charged when demand is low – ideally when energy prices are also low – and discharged to mitigate the peak load when demand is high [11]. DCM with BESS is ideal for periodic peaking loads as they accumulate high demand charges.

 

IV.     CONCLUSION

Modern life and associated lifestyles require continuous, reliable, and secure power supply. The need for non-disruption to essential and critical services like healthcare, financial systems, telecommunication, emergency response, navigation, transportation etcetera exert the need for energy storage systems that ensure continuity of power supply. Battery storage technologies have become important in modern day electric power systems due to the need for replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy. It is therefore critical that Battery Energy Storage Systems are applied to Distribution Electric Power Systems to support Distribution Infrastructure Services as well as Customer Energy Management Services.

V.     References

 

[1]	Law Insider, "Distribution Infrastructure definition," Law Insider, [Online]. Available: https://www.lawinsider.com/dictionary/distribution-infrastructure#:~:text=Distribution%20Infrastructure%20means%20the%20physical,service%20drops%2C%20transformers%20and%20Meters.. [Accessed 03 April 2022].
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[7]	L. Zhigang, B. Guannan, X. Hanchen, D. Xuzhu, Y. Zhichang and L. Chao, "Battery Energy Storage System Based Power Quality Management of Distribution Network," in Informatics in Control, Automation and Robotics. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, Berlin, 2011.
[8]	D. K. John and J. K. Brendan, "MEASUREMENT PRACTICES FOR RELIABILITY AND POWER QUALITY," Oak Ridge National Laboratory , Tennessee, 2004.
[9]	Operations Training Solutions, "Dynamics of Interconnected Power Systems, A Tutorial for System Dispatchers and Plant Operators," Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, 1989.
[10]	Z. Alireza, J. Shahram and S. Pierluigi, "Stochastic multi-objective operational planning of smart distribution systems considering demand response programs," Electric Power Systems Research, vol. 111, pp. 156-168, 2014.
[11]	H. R, K. J, N. lA and F. M, "Energy dispatch schedule optimization for demand charge reduction using a photovoltaic-battery storage system with solar forecasting," Solar Energy, vol. 103, pp. 269-287, 2014.