Friday, 13 May 2022

ENERGY OUTLOOK - THE POTENTIAL MARKET FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES

 

    




ABSTRACT

The world is looking at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Transitioning from transportation systems that rely on fossil fuels to more environmentally friendly technology is the goal of governments across the globe. Various governments put forth plans to outlaw vehicles that run on fossil fuels by 2030. Coupled by various governments’ incentives to promote adoption of electric vehicles, the electric vehicle market has seen a tremendous growth over the past decade. However, the global pandemic due to Covid-19 and subsequent global lockdowns hampered supply chain and manufacturing logistics. The electric car market is back on the rise following the lifting of lockdowns and is expected to increase exponentially, especially with the rising global fuel prices due to stale geopolitical environment i.e. the Russia-Ukrainian war.

 ENERGY OUTLOOK – THE POTENTIAL MARKET FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Climate Change is the most critical threat facing planet earth at present. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes that modern civilization depends upon have raised atmospheric CO2 levels, warming the planet. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the transportation sector is the leading source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States (U.S.), and petroleum is the main source of energy for this sector. In 2020, petroleum products accounted for about 90% of the total U.S. transportation sector energy use [1].

Mitigation or reducing climate change as well as adaptation to it, which involves adapting to life in a changing climate, are pushing the world to adopt usage of electric vehicles (EVs). The EV is considered as the energy transition technology towards a more sustainable and environmentally friendly transportation system globally. To meet the long-term targets for climate change mitigation and reduction of petroleum use, governments around the world have set goals to increase EVs market share. Global EV sales reached 6,75 million units in 2021, 108 % more than in 2020 [2].

EVs are divided into three:

    a)      Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs), which are dual-powered vehicles that utilize electric motor and Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) for propulsion. 

    b)      Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) are a sub-category of HEVs. However, these are plugged to the larger electricity supply system for charging and use both electric motor and ICE for propulsion.

    c)      Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) are purely electric motor vehicles powered by batteries, which can also be charged from the larger electric supply.

The following table from EV-Volumes.com shows the global sales of PHEVs and BEVs from 2013 to 2021. 

 

Figure 1: Global PHEVs and BEVs Sales ('000s) Source: https://www.ev-volumes.com/

 Electric cars have surged ever since they debuted on the commercial markets during the first half of the decade. Only about 17 000 electric cars were on the world’s roads in 2010 [3]. However, during the past 24 months, the global car sales experienced an unprecedented drop since SARS-CoV-2, the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19, was detected in Wuhan, China, in late 2019 and set off a global pandemic. Most countries around the world instituted lockdown measures to beat the pandemic. These global lockdowns incapacitated manufacturing facilities, supply chains, and consumer demand.

During the second half of 2020 governments across the globe started relaxing these lockdown measures, and there was a ripple effect on the automotive market. For electric cars, monthly sales surpassed those between July and December in 2019 in every month in all large markets including China, the European Union, India, Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States, despite second waves of the pandemic [4]. Despite the challenges of 2019 and 2020, global EV sales improved in 2021 as shown by the chart below.

 


Figure 2: Global monthly Plug-in vehicle sales from 2019 to 2021. Source: https://www.ev-volumes.com/

At present, China leads the global EV sales, seconded by Germany. According to data on the EV-volumes.com on growth of EV sales since 2012, China’s sales emerged in 2019 and 2020. Pure electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (China calls them "new energy vehicles" or NEVs) are expected to account for 40 percent of 38 million sales in 2030, or about 15 million units [5]. The government extended electric car subsidies for a further two years after the pandemic broke out, albeit with a planned reduction of 10% in 2021, and 30% in 2022 [6]. The Chinese EV market is set to reach more growth in 2022 resulting from consumer preferences for the new model offerings, residual national subsidies, and Chinese government’s preferential treatment for EVs. At 25%, Germany had by far the highest market share among large European markets, followed by the United Kingdom and France (both around 15%), Italy (8.8%) and Spain (6.5%) [6]. EIA reports that in the United States electric car market in 2021 saw a more than double sales to surpass half a million.

The global electric car market however is not evenly spread across countries. China, Europe, and the United States account for roughly two-thirds of the overall car market but around 90% of electric car sales [6]. Governments have a key role to play in driving the global electric car markets by formulating policies that promote use of EVs. Over the course of 2020 and 2021, many governments set targets to phase out sales of internal combustion engine cars within the next two decades, as did several car manufacturers [6].

 

 

Figure 3: BEV + PHEV Sales and Percentage Growth. Source: https://www.ev-volumes.com/

 The initial cost of procuring an electric vehicle still exceeds that of their traditional counterparts. The additional costs of plug-in hybrid and fully electric cars compared to regular ICE cars largely depend on the high costs of batteries [7]. However, the running costs of an electric vehicle are narrowing this gap. As the global prices of diesel or gasoline are soaring due to geopolitical factors like the Russia-Ukrainian war, the cost difference between traditional vehicles and their electrical counterparts is narrowing. Economic indicators, which include total cost of ownership (TCO), least cost, net present value (NPV), payback period (PBP), internal rate of return (IRR), and return on investment (ROI) are constantly beginning may begin to favor EVs.

Moving parts in EVs are fewer than in ICE vehicles. This leads to minimal maintenance costs for EVs compared to traditional cars. The EV drivetrain composed of electronics, motor, battery do not require regular maintenance. The estimated scheduled maintenance cost for a light-duty battery-electric vehicle (BEV) totals 6.1 cents per mile, while a conventional internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) totals 10.1 cents per mile [8].

HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs do improve fuel economy and lower fuel costs. In 2019, the United States imported about 3% of the petroleum it consumed, and the transportation sector accounts for approximately 30% of total U.S. energy needs and 70% of U.S. petroleum consumption [9]. “In 2021, the United States consumed an average of about 19.78 million barrels of petroleum per day, or a total of about 7.22 billion barrels of petroleum. This was an increase in consumption of about 1.6 million barrels per day over consumption in 2020. The increase was largely the result of the economy recovering from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic [10].” However, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that there have been varying sales of motor gasoline since 2020. This variability is attributed to changes in driving activity, population changes, employment, and the fact that more people are working from home. EIA goes further to state that increased sales of HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs, which consume less, or no gasoline compared with ICE contributed to the gasoline sales variability. Although still low as a percentage of the total light-duty vehicle fleet, sales of these vehicles were 5.4% of total sales in 2020 and were 11% of total sales in the fourth quarter of 2021, up from 2.9% in 2015 and 2.4% in 2010 [11].

The costs for solar photovoltaics, wind, and battery storage have plummeted during the last decade. “The fundamental driver of this change is that renewable energy technologies follow learning curves, which means that with each doubling of the cumulative installed capacity their price declines by the same fraction. The price of electricity from fossil fuel sources however does not follow learning curves so that we should expect that the price difference between expensive fossil fuels and cheap renewables will become even larger in the future [12].” However, shipping constraints and other supply chain challenges due to Covid-19 pandemic resulted in trade instability and led to price increases. The utility scale solar market faced a host of challenges in 2021 as the pandemic wreaked havoc on international supply chains and labor availability, pushing prices to their highest levels in three years [13]. In 2022 these supply chain challenges are expected to normalize as countries have lifted lockdowns and solar manufacturing industries are back on track. Price of electricity will therefore remain low and offer a cost competitive advantage on the traditional vehicles that use fuel which is facing global rising costs.

The European Union has given its vehicle manufactures limits on emissions. This limitation is calculated based on the total number of vehicles sold. Traditional vehicle manufactures are therefore switching to electric vehicles to avoid heavy fines. Various governments, including the United Kingdom, have brought forward plans to outlaw the sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2030. This has increased interest in electric vehicles and new companies are joining the EV industry. This will lead to growth in supply of electric vehicles and in the process lower the cost of EVs.

 CONCLUSION

The market for electric vehicles is growing owing to an increasing demand for environmentally friendly automobiles to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Implementation of favorable government policies that offer several benefits, including tax exemptions, subsidies, low buying costs and free charging facilities are providing a boost to the market growth.  However, the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns that took place since 2019 affected the manufacturing logistics and supply chain. This hampered the growth of the electric vehicle industry. However, since the world saw the lifting of lockdowns, the EV market is on the rise more than before. The recent geopolitical instability due to the Russian-Ukrainian war which has affected the price of crude oil is an opportunity for the electric vehicle industry as more users may consider transitioning from internal combustion engine propelled vehicles to electric motor propelled counterparts.

References

[1]

U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Use of energy explained - Energy use for transportation," EIA, 17 May 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/use-of-energy/transportation.php#:~:text=Petroleum%20is%20the%20main%20source,in%20natural%20gas%20pipeline%20compressors.. [Accessed 09 April 2022].

[2]

R. Irle, "Global EV Sales for 2021," EV Volumes.com, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.ev-volumes.com/. [Accessed 09 May 2022].

[3]

International Energy Agency, "Global EV Outlook 2020," IEA, 2020.

[4]

G. Marine and P. Leornado, "How global electric car sales defied Covid-19 in 2020," IEA, 28 January 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-global-electric-car-sales-defied-covid-19-in-2020. [Accessed 10 April 2022].

[5]

J. D. Michael, "China Aims To Be No. 1 Globally In EVs, Autonomous Cars By 2030," Forbes, 14 December 2016. [Online]. Available: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldunne/2016/12/14/chinas-automotive-2030-blueprint-no-1-globally-in-evs-autonomous-cars/?sh=4b7356421c6e. [Accessed 10 April 2022].

[6]

P. Leonardo and G. Timur, "Electric cars fend off supply challenges to more than double global sales," IEA, 30 January 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/electric-cars-fend-off-supply-challenges-to-more-than-double-global-sales. [Accessed 11 April 2022].

[7]

V. Oscar van, S. B. Anne, K. Takeshi, d. B. Machteld van and F. André, "Energy use, cost and CO2 emissions of electric cars," 15 February 2011. [Online]. Available: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037877531001726X?via%3Dihub. [Accessed 10 April 2022].

[8]

Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, "FOTW #1190, June 14, 2021: Battery-Electric Vehicles Have Lower Scheduled Maintenance Costs than Other Light-Duty Vehicles," U.S. Department of Energy, 14 June 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1190-june-14-2021-battery-electric-vehicles-have-lower-scheduled#:~:text=The%20estimated%20scheduled%20maintenance%20cost,totals%2010.1%20cents%20per%20mile.. [Accessed 11 April 2022].

[9]

U.S. Department of Energy, "Electric Vehicle Benefits and Considerations," U.S Department of Energy, [Online]. Available: https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_benefits.html#:~:text=Hybrid%20and%20plug%2Din%20electric,fuel%20costs%2C%20and%20reduce%20emissions.. [Accessed 11 April 2022].

[10]

U.S. Energy Information Administration, "How much oil is consumed in the United States?," EIA, 09 March 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=33&t=6. [Accessed 11 April 2022].

[11]

U.S. Energy Information Administration, "This Week in Petroleum," EIA, 06 April 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/archive/2022/220406/includes/analysis_print.php. [Accessed 11 April 2022].

[12]

R. Max, "Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?," Our World in Data, 01 December 2020. [Online]. Available: https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth. [Accessed 11 April 2022].

[13]

Solar Energy Industry Association, "Solar Industry Research Data," SEIA, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.seia.org/solar-industry-research-data. [Accessed 11 April 2022].

 

 

 

 

Monday, 9 May 2022

BATTERY ENERGY STORAGE FOR DISTRIBUTION APPLICATIONS

 Abstract—Energy storage systems are used in different ways to achieve energy management of electric power systems. Batteries are the most important devices to build energy storage systems as they are rechargeable. Battery Energy Storage Systems are therefore finding their way in Distribution Electric Power System applications. This paper   illustrates some of the ways in which Battery Energy Storage Systems are applied in Distribution Power System.

I.     INTRODUCTION


The Electric Power System (EPS) has evolved from being hierarchical with respect to power generation, transmission, and distribution to being integrated. The modern-day EPS incorporates bidirectional power flows, and electric power through Distributed Generation (DG), is also being generated at load centers within the distribution network. Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), both in stationary and mobile forms, are finding their application within this revolutionized EPS. Integration of BESS into the Distribution Electric Power System (DEPS) can be said to target two main goals, namely, Distribution Infrastructure Services (DIS) and Customer Energy Management Services (CEMS) applications.

 

Distribution Infrastructure means the physical equipment used to distribute electric power at voltages below 38,000 volts, including but not limited to poles, primary lines, secondary lines, service drops, transformers, and Meters [1]. Application of BESS to Distribution Infrastructure can take the form of Uninterruptible Power Supply for Control and Instrumentation, Distribution Upgrade Deferral, Voltage Support, and Outage Mitigation. DEPSs Control and Instrumentation applications require uninterruptible power supply to the Intelligent Electronic Devices (IEDs) in equipment like Remote Terminal Units (RTUs) and Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs) to achieve operational continuity. Distribution Upgrade Deferral can involve installation BESS downstream from the nearly overloaded Distribution node to provide enough incremental capacity to defer the need for a large investment in distribution equipment reinforcement. BESS can also provide voltage support to DEPS by addressing issues relating to overvoltage and undervoltage conditions. BESS outage mitigation application can involve absorption of extra power during light load periods and supplying additional power during high load conditions.

 

BESS Customer Energy Management Services applications in DEPS on the other hand involve utilities meeting customer expectations of Power Quality, Power Reliability, Retail electric energy time-shift, and Time-of-Use (TOU) Cost Management and Demand Charge Management. Integration of renewable and distributed energy technologies onto the DEPS introduces challenges of maintaining power quality, as well as balancing supply and demand. At the same time, reducing and optimizing energy consumption is key to both keeping overall energy costs down and meeting sustainability goals.

 

II.     DISTRIBUTION INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES APPLICATIONS OF BESS

A.     Uninterruptible Power Supply for Control and Instrumentation

Modern electrical power systems are highly automated and use microprocessors in IEDs imbedded in equipment like RTUs and PLCs. To deliver secure, continuous, reliable, and quality electric power supply to customers in the safest manner possible, the DEPS incorporates these electronic and logic devices within its architecture for Protection and Control applications. Uninterruptible power supply to these protection and control devises is of utmost importance. Battery storage therefore finds its way into these ancillary services for DEPS.

B.     Loss Minimization

Many DEPS have radial structure of their feeders. These radial feeders can have a large current to voltage ratio which results in high quantity of power losses in a distribution system. These power losses can be reduced by optimal allocation of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) complete with BESS. Power loss in each branch is the measure of squared value of current flowing into the branch, and energy storage shifts some of this current to a low demand period decreasing the resistive losses [2]. 

 

C.     Distribution Upgrade Deferral

DEPS expand at rates dictated by economic and demographic factors. Load forecasting and planning requirements for DEPS feeder upgrades or new installations become paramount to avoid exceeding the original thermal ampacity limitations of feeders’ line conductor or associated transformers. By utilizing the Battery Energy Storage for peak shaving, BESS on selected locations at the substation or along the distribution feeder would be used to relieve thermal stress to various pieces of equipment, such as substation transformers or distribution conductors [3]. Aging DEPS equipment can also have its lifespan extended by lowering the load it services using BESS. A key value proposition for this application is that a small amount of storage can allow the utility to delay the need for expensive, demand-growth-related DEPS equipment upgrades or reduce demand served by existing DEPS equipment such that the equipment’s life is extended.

 

The common methodology used for developing an effective Distribution Upgrade Deferral program involves development of engineering and financial model that provides guidelines for practical storage deployment and assesses business benefits of BESS as a potential solution for capacity and operational issues.  The methodology can rely on:

·         Detailed engineering analysis of the storage benefits on the utility’s distribution system.

·         Developed and validated repeatable and scalable models and control algorithms.

·         A specified timeframe of stochastic cost projections for selected battery storage technologies.

·         Detailed costs-benefit analysis for the battery type to be used.

 

It is crucial that the BESS must be located downstream from the affected equipment so that it would qualify as a DER. Usually upgrade deferral may only be applied for a very small portion of the year because peak demand may only be experienced during the most extreme peaks like the hottest days. When system upgrade becomes less expensive compared to BESS application if peak demand is growing quickly and requires large amount of storage needed to continue to defer the upgrade, the benefit would diminish rapidly after just a few years. Mobile BESS can be moved and used for deferral or life extension elsewhere. Stationary BESS may also be re-used for other benefits.

 

D.     Voltage Support

Variable energy resources like photovoltaic and wind can cause power and voltage fluctuations. If power generation from these resources significantly exceeds local load demand, it can lead to unacceptable voltage rise at a load bus. These voltage fluctuations can be problematic for DEPS Controllers to manage.

 

Voltage regulation involves controlling voltage magnitudes at all buses of the distribution network to be within the permissible limits. In particular, quick and accurate voltage control becomes primarily important in networks with high PV generation because transient cloud conditions challenge traditional voltage control schemes and can cause frequent voltage and power fluctuations [4]. BESS can help in DEPS voltage regulation processes to solve the voltage deviation problems in LV distribution networks with high penetration of variable resources. For instance, a distributed control based on a consensus algorithm for buses voltage regulation can be applied, where a local control scheme is employed to regulate the state of charge (SoC) of each BESS within desired SoC range. A similar approach but using coordinated control strategy combining a local droop-based control method and a distributed control scheme based on consensus algorithms, with each of which having specific objectives in regulating the charge/discharge of BESS, can help ensuring that bus voltages remain within specified limits.

E.     Outage Mitigation

Natural disasters, which have been aggravated by climate change, can lead to large-scale power outages, and affect critical infrastructure in the process, causing social and economic damages. Improving power grid resilience can help mitigate the damages caused by these events [5]. Resilience has been defined as the ability to reduce the magnitude and/or duration of disruptive events, which includes the capability to anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and/or rapidly recover from a potentially disruptive event.

 

BESS can enhance DEPS resilience by providing localized support to critical loads during an outage. Mobile BESS can further provide operational flexibility to support geographically dispersed loads across an outage area.

           

III.     CUSTOMER ENERGY MANAGEMENT SERVICES APPLICATION OF BESS

A.     Power Quality

Power Quality (PQ) constitutes Voltage Quality, Current Quality, the Quality of Power Supply, and the Quality of Power Consumption. Electricity customers expect to be supplied with power of good quality in accordance with standards and guidelines for their specific region e.g., ANSI C84.1. Poor power quality is attributed due to the various disturbances like voltage sag, swell, impulsive, and oscillatory transients, multiple notches, momentary interruption, harmonics, and voltage flickers [6]. Very large and fluctuating loads on distribution feeders can cause voltage sags and variations which can also affect other customers on the same feeder. BESS can output active and reactive power at the same time and have the four-quadrant operation ability thus can play an important role in the power quality management of distribution network [7].

 

Most industrial automation devices are very sensitive to voltage variations and system harmonics. Customers’ behind-the-meter BESSs can be used to mitigate power quality issues for local loads, over and above Demand Charge Management applications.

 

B.     Power Reliability

Power reliability can be defined as the degree to which the performance of the elements in a bulk system result in electricity being delivered to customers within accepted standards and in the amount desired [8]. The degree of reliability may be measured by the frequency, duration, and magnitude of adverse effects on the electric supply [9]. Reliability quantifies the likelihood of a system to function as specified, under given conditions, over a given duration. BESS localized in load centers can be used to achieve power reliability for customers as an alternative source of supply to the main grid.  

C.     Retail electric energy time-shift

Distribution System Operators (DSOs) can optimize the use of DG and enable customers to participate in various Demand Side Management (DSM) programs like Demand Response (DR). DR is a wholesale market program that energy customers can participate in to earn money for reducing electricity use during peak times. In general, DR includes all planned electricity consumption pattern modifications by end-use customers that are intended to modify the timing and/or the level of their electricity consumption in response to incentive payments or to changes in the price signal over time [10]. DR is a critical measure that a utility can apply to maintain grid reliability and reduce peak electricity prices. However, customers, especially commercial and industrial, may not have the flexibility to adjust load if they are to participate in DR exercise the traditional way. BESS storage gives customers the flexibility to participate in DR programs without affecting their operations. BESS can function automatically by processing DR notifications and take over customer’s local load during utility’s peak hours. This would ensure that there are no disruptions to domestic routines, business and/or production processes of a customer.

D.     Time-of-Use (TOU) Cost Management and Demand Charge Management (DCM)

A customer can be charged for both electricity energy consumption with respect to time in kilowatt-hours (kWh) as well as peak power demanded in kilowatt (kW). The charge on peak power demanded is called Demand Charge (DC). On the other hand, utilities use a Time-of-Use (TOU) pricing structure by allocating higher electricity prices with periods of higher demand. Using storage devices, TOU management can reduce energy charges via energy time-shifting and price arbitrage, while DCM can reduce demand charges via peak load shifting [11].

 

A customer can use BESS for TOU management to reduce energy charges through energy time-shifting and price arbitrage, as well as DCM to reduce demand charges by peak load shifting. BESS can be charged during low electricity prices and discharged to offset energy use when prices are high. This would result in reduced net energy charges. Similarly, in DCM applications, storage devices are charged when demand is low – ideally when energy prices are also low – and discharged to mitigate the peak load when demand is high [11]. DCM with BESS is ideal for periodic peaking loads as they accumulate high demand charges.

 

IV.     CONCLUSION

Modern life and associated lifestyles require continuous, reliable, and secure power supply. The need for non-disruption to essential and critical services like healthcare, financial systems, telecommunication, emergency response, navigation, transportation etcetera exert the need for energy storage systems that ensure continuity of power supply. Battery storage technologies have become important in modern day electric power systems due to the need for replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy. It is therefore critical that Battery Energy Storage Systems are applied to Distribution Electric Power Systems to support Distribution Infrastructure Services as well as Customer Energy Management Services.


V.     References

 

[1]

Law Insider, "Distribution Infrastructure definition," Law Insider, [Online]. Available: https://www.lawinsider.com/dictionary/distribution-infrastructure#:~:text=Distribution%20Infrastructure%20means%20the%20physical,service%20drops%2C%20transformers%20and%20Meters.. [Accessed 03 April 2022].

[2]

S. M, R. N.A, A. M.M, T. C.K and R. S.R.S, "Sizing and applications of battery energy storage technologies in smart grid system: A review," Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, vol. 11, no. 1, 2019.

[3]

L. Garcia-Garcia, E. A. Paaso and M. Avendano-Mora, "Assessment of battery energy storage for distribution capacity upgrade deferral," in 2017 IEEE Power & Energy Society Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference (ISGT), Washington, DC, 2017.

[4]

K. Jaroslaw and K. S. Tapan, "Real-Time Coordinated Voltage Support With Battery Energy Storage in a Distribution Grid Equipped With Medium-Scale PV Generation," IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 3486 - 3497, 2019.

[5]

D. Jesse, M. Salman and K. Benjamin, "Application of Mobile Energy Storage for Enhancing Power Grid Resilience: A Review," Power Grid Resilience, vol. 14, no. 20, 2021.

[6]

D. PK, P. Malhar and B. SK, "Estimation of power quality indices in distributed generation systems," Electrical Power and Energy Systems, vol. 36, no. 1, pp. 18-30, 2012.

[7]

L. Zhigang, B. Guannan, X. Hanchen, D. Xuzhu, Y. Zhichang and L. Chao, "Battery Energy Storage System Based Power Quality Management of Distribution Network," in Informatics in Control, Automation and Robotics. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, Berlin, 2011.

[8]

D. K. John and J. K. Brendan, "MEASUREMENT PRACTICES FOR RELIABILITY AND POWER QUALITY," Oak Ridge National Laboratory , Tennessee, 2004.

[9]

Operations Training Solutions, "Dynamics of Interconnected Power Systems, A Tutorial for System Dispatchers and Plant Operators," Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, 1989.

[10]

Z. Alireza, J. Shahram and S. Pierluigi, "Stochastic multi-objective operational planning of smart distribution systems considering demand response programs," Electric Power Systems Research, vol. 111, pp. 156-168, 2014.

[11]

H. R, K. J, N. lA and F. M, "Energy dispatch schedule optimization for demand charge reduction using a photovoltaic-battery storage system with solar forecasting," Solar Energy, vol. 103, pp. 269-287, 2014.

 

 

Sunday, 10 April 2022

ENGINEERING AND ECONOMICS: ANALYSIS OF LITHIUM-ION BATTERY CHALLENGES AND IMPACT ON ENERGY INDUSTRY

 


1.    ABSTRACT

 Modern life and associated lifestyles require reliable and secure power supply. The need for continuity on essential and critical services which include but not limited to healthcare, financial system, telecommunication, emergency response, navigation, transportation exert the need for energy storage systems that ensure continuity of power supply. Battery storage technologies have even become more critical in the modern world due to the need for replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy. Unfortunately, just like any other technology, the battery technology has faced its own share of challenges that has a bearing on engineering and the energy industry. This paper analyzes some of the most recent battery related incidents and identifies the causes of the problems and briefly discusses the potential impact on the energy industry.


2.    LITHIUM-ION BATTERY POTENTIAL ON THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TRANSITION

 Materials that reasonably conduct electricity can be grouped into metallic and electrolytic conductors. Metallic and electrolytic conductors, such as acids, bases, and salts allow the movement of electric charge through a process known as electrochemical reaction. Electrochemical reaction is any process either caused or accompanied by the passage of an electric current and involving in most cases the transfer of electrons between two substances—one a solid and the other a liquid [1]. A battery is an assembly of metallic conductors separated by electrolytic conductors to achieve the process of electrochemical reaction. When electric power is being supplied by a battery, the positive terminal is known as the cathode while the negative terminal is the anode. A battery is called rechargeable if its electrochemical reaction is reversible i.e., it can be charged and recharged. The battery has therefore become a very critical technology in modern day engineering as one of the means for energy storage.

 

Different technologies have been employed in manufacturing batteries. These technologies involve different combinations of metallic and electrolytic materials, including lead–acid, zinc–air, nickel–cadmium (NiCd), nickel–metal hydride (NiMH), lithium-ion (Li-ion), lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4), and lithium-ion polymer (Li-ion polymer). Batteries range in size from small units that can supply power in watts to large systems that can supply mega-watts. There are, therefore, many applications of batteries from domestic to commercial. Devices that use batteries for energy storage applications include but not limited to portable consumer devices, light vehicles, road vehicles, trains, airplanes, uninterruptible power systems, and storage systems for power stations. Lithium-ion batteries are by far the most popular battery storage option today and control more than 90 percent of the global grid battery storage market [2]. Lithium-ion rechargeable batteries seem to be everywhere—they provide power for most portable electronics, an increasing number of hand tools, as well as the latest types of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs, such as Nissan Leaf and Tesla Roadster) and Extended-Range Electric Vehicles (E-REV such as Chevy Volt) [3]. “Demand for Lithium-Ion batteries to power electric vehicles and energy storage has seen exponential growth, increasing from just 0.5 gigawatt-hours in 2010 to around 526 gigawatt hours a decade later. Demand is projected to increase 17-fold by 2030, bringing the cost of battery storage down, according to Bloomberg [4].”

Figure1: Cumulative lithium-ion battery demand for vehicle/energy storage applications (in GW hours).
Source: Bloomberg

Figure2: Opportunities in Lithium-ion battery market

3.    SAFETY ISSUES INVOLVING LITHIUM-ION BATTERIES

Safety is very important for energy storage systems like batteries including Lithium-ion. Thermal stability is perhaps the most important of several parameters that determine safety of Li-ion cells, modules, and battery packs [3]. “The key safety aspects with lithium-Ion batteries are how they are put together and monitored. The worst outcome involves thermal runaway, or an explosion. This would be a major concern for big battery installations like the ones used to store renewable energy, but they operate in a very controlled environment [4].” The following are some of the safety incidents involving Lithium-ion batteries that are on record:

a.    Boeing 787

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner is a long-range, wide-body, twin-engine jet airliner which began commercial flights in late 2011. On 16 January 2013, all Boeing 787 Dreamliners were indefinitely grounded due to lithium-ion battery failures that had occurred in two planes [5]. One such incident occurred on 7th January 2013 at exactly 10:21am EST at Boston International Airport involving a Japan Airlines flight JA829J. The Lithium-ion battery module in the auxiliary power compartment of the plane smoked and caught fire. This aircraft was entered on December 20, 2012, and it had only flown 22 times for a total of 169 hours by the time of the accident [6].

 

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner utilizes two identical lithium-ion batteries that help start the auxiliary power unit when the plane is on the ground and serve as a backup for electronic flight systems [5]. The Boeing 787's auxiliary power battery module is housed in the electronics bay behind the wing and provides power to the aircraft when the aircraft's engines are turned off [6]. The battery pack was a combination of 8 single cells of 75 Ah capacity connected in series, together with a battery management and monitoring systems were packaged to form the battery module. It is indicated that the aircraft was parked at Logan Airport and passengers including crew had departed. In its parked state the burning auxiliary power battery module was the only power source for the aircraft. 

 

The main battery module and auxiliary power battery module of the aircraft are both produced by Japan Yuasa Co., Ltd., with the same specifications [6]. When Boeing was initially qualifying the design of their battery system in 2009, lithium cobalt oxide (LiCoO2) was the most widely used cathode chemistry for most commercial lithium-ion battery applications. This was due to its high energy density and high voltage limit compared to alternative chemistries [5]. However, concerns have been raised about the thermal stability of LiCoO2 and its tendency to release pure oxygen when over-charged, providing an ideal environment for combustion [7]. Flight JA829J incident challenged the application of large-scale lithium-ion power battery modules. It brought the question as to why the thermal control of the battery module suddenly broke out without pre-adjustment under the protection of strict layers of fortification and caused a chain reaction. The battery burning accident of Japan Airlines flight JA829J is a typical safety accident in which the thermal runaway of the lithium-ion battery caused by the internal short circuit is transmitted between the single cells inside the battery module, resulting in a chain reaction [6]. Thermal runaway depicts a process that is enhanced by heightened temperature, which culminates into energy that further increases temperature, often leading to a destructive result. It is a kind of uncontrolled positive feedback, and in chemical engineering, it is associated with strongly exothermic reactions that are accelerated by temperature rise. In electrical engineering it is associated with increased current flow and power dissipation.

Despite Boeing aircrafts being certified by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, this incident, and several others before it made Boeing 787 aircrafts fail to meet the quality specifications and inspection standards of the National Transportation Safety Board which stipulate that only one battery safety valve opening accident is allowed for every 10 million flight hours. The accident exposed the weakness of the external protection measures applied to prevent external short circuits and overcharge and discharge that they could not cope with internal short circuits.  Boeing redesigned the battery and charger, and designed a steel box to contain fires and vent hot gasses outside the plane [8]. As lithium-ion technology has matured, lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) cathodes have gained wide acceptance in applications such as power tools and electric vehicles due particularly to their enhanced thermal stability over LiCoO2 cathodes [9]. Batteries made with LiFePO4 cathodes operate within a lower voltage range and have slightly less charge storage capacity than batteries with LiCoO2 cathodes [5].

b.    Tesla

Tesla, along with other vehicle manufactures, have had several of their electric vehicle models succumb to fire accidents. The table below lists some of these incidents. These incidents are mostly due to thermal runaway of the Lithium-ion battery. The common causes of EV fires include the self-ignition (or spontaneous/auto ignition) in parked vehicles due to arson or sustained abuse, for example, fire during the charging process, self-ignition while in driving, and fire after the traffic accident such as the high-speed collision [10]. On Tuesday, May 8, 2018, at 6:46 p.m., a 2014 Tesla Model S electric-powered car occupied by an 18-year-old driver and two 18-year-old passengers was traveling south in the 1300 block of Seabreeze Boulevard, in Fort Lauderdale, Florida at a recorded speed of 116 mph [11].


Figure 3: Photo of battery showing fire-damaged region at front that contained modules 15 and 16, loose individual cells (rust-colored), vertically stacked cells below loosened covers, and orange insulation caps covering high-voltage terminals [11].


The vehicle’s 400-VDC, 85-kWh lithium-ion traction battery was located under the floor of the car and spanned an area from the front tires’ rearward. The battery was divided into 16 modules (numbered from rear to front), plus a compartment for the battery management system. Each module contained individual battery cells stacked vertically. Modules 15 and16, at the front of the car, were the most severely burned [11].

Table 1 The List of Selective EV Fire Accidents Occurred in 2018 [10]

From: A Review of Battery Fires in Electric Vehicles

Date

Location

Vehicle

Incident

Comments

Jan [8]

Chongqing, China

Tesla, BEV

Fire in the parked vehicle

Spontaneous ignition

15 Mar [9]

Bangkok, Thailand

Porsche Panamera, PHEV

Fire while being charged

Car’s charging cable plugged to socket in the living room without built-in safety systems, and fire spread to the house

18 Mar [10]

Catalonia, Spain

BMW i3 REx, PHEV

Fire in the parked vehicle

Spontaneous ignition

23 Mar [7]

California, USA

Tesla Model X, BEV

Post-crash fire

Fire extinguished on the scene but reignited twice at tow yard 5 days later

May [11]

Anhui, China

Other, BEV

Fire while being charged

 

May [11]

Unknown

Yiema, BEV

Fire while being charged

 

8 May [12]

Florida, USA

Tesla Model S, BEV

Post-crash fire

Fire initially extinguished quickly but reignited during loading on tow truck and once again at the tow yard

15 May [13]

Ticino, Switzerland

Tesla, BEV

Post-crash fire

Vehicle hit a barrier, turned over and burst into flames

20 May [11]

Hangzhou, China

Jiangling, BEV

Fire while being charged

 

2 May [11]

Hubei, China

Zhong Tai, BEV

Fire while being driven

Self-ignited without traffic accident

28 May [11]

Shenzhen, China

Other, BEV

Fire while being charged

 

4 Jun [11]

Shandong, China

Other, BEV

Fire while being driven

Self-ignited without traffic accident

5 Jun [11]

Beijing, China

Other, BEV

Fire while being charged

 

15 Jun [14]

California, USA

Tesla Model S, BEV

Fire while being driven

Fire extinguished on the scene without reignition

12 Dec [15]

Gelderland, Netherlands

Jaguar I-Pace, BEV

Fire in the parked vehicle

The vehicle front was burned but no involvement of the battery pack

18 Dec [16]

California, USA

Tesla Model S

Fire in the parked vehicle

Fire started at workshop parking lot, and the fire reignited twice

c.    Samsung Note 7

Samsung Galaxy Note 7 was unveiled on 2nd August 2016 and officially released on 19th August 2016. Samsung permanently ceased production of the device on 11th October 2016, a day after announcing a global recall of the smartphone due to a factory fault in the phones' batteries that caused some of them to generate excessive heat, resulting in fires. On 8 September 2016, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued an advisory stating that “In light of recent incidents and concerns raised by Samsung about its Galaxy Note 7 devices, the Federal Aviation Administration strongly advises passengers not to turn on or charge these devices on board aircraft and not to stow them in any checked baggage [12].” The European Aviation Safety Agency followed suit on 9th September 2016 advising passengers and crew members to keep these devices turned off and not to charge them while on board of the aircraft and not to put them inside the checked baggage.

 

“The critical component in lithium-ion batteries is the thin separator that sits between the two electrodes. If this barrier breaks down or is damaged by any outside pressure, this can trigger excessive heat and could cause a battery fire. Additionally, if this barrier breaks down to the point where the two electrodes touch, short-circuiting and overheating will result, potentially leading to a battery fire. Samsung rushed the production and design of the Galaxy Note 7 in order to beat the release of Apple’s iPhone 7 and, in the process, included an exceptionally thin separator in the batteries that could increase the likelihood of fires or explosions. Battery scientists say that Samsung’s aggressive design decisions made problems more likely, and that their choice to push the limits of battery technology left little safety margin in the event of a problem [13].” Over 16 trillion Won ($14.3 billion) was wiped off Samsung’s market capitalization amid increased concern from investors over the potential damage that the recall could cause to the world’s largest smartphone maker by market share [14].

d.    Other Incidents

In 2006 Apple recalled 1.8 million battery packs for its iBook and PowerBook notebook computers because of an overheating problem. The affected Lithium-ion batteries were manufactured by Sony and were used in the iBook G4 and PowerBook G4.  The company said the recall affected 1.1 million notebook batteries in the United States and 700,000 batteries abroad [15]. It was then reported that Apple's recall was the second-largest computer or electronics recall in history from Dell. The Sony 1.8 million batteries for Apple and 4.1 million for Dell costed the manufacturer between $172 million and $258 million.

 

On 6th September 2006 the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission issued a notice for recall of ThinkPad Notebook Computer Batteries Due to Fire Hazard. The product was the lithium-ion batteries used in ThinkPad notebook computers which affected about 168,500 battery packs (an additional 357,500 battery packs were sold worldwide). The battery distributer was Lenovo (United States) Inc., of Research Triangle Park, N.C. and International Business Machines Corp., of Armonk, N.Y. These battery packs were manufactured by Sony Energy Devices Corp., of Japan. The hazard involved overheating, posing a fire hazard to consumers. It was said that Lenovo had received one confirmed report of a battery overheating and causing a fire that damaged the notebook computer. The incident, which occurred within an airport terminal as the user was boarding an airplane, caused enough smoking and sparking that a fire extinguisher was used to put it out [16].

 

On 30th October 2008 the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission issued another order for PC Notebook computer batteries recall due to fire and burn hazard. The affected batteries were also Lithium-Ion used in Hewlett-Packard, Toshiba and Dell Notebook Computers. The number of affected units were about 35,000 batteries (an additional 65,000 batteries were sold worldwide), and the manufacturer was Sony Energy Devices Corporation, of Japan.  The hazard involved overheating, posing a fire and burn hazard to consumers. The Commission indicated that there were 19 reports of the batteries overheating, including 17 reports of flames/fire (10 resulting in minor property damage), and that two consumers experienced minor burns. The recalled batteries were included with, and sold separately for use in, the following notebook computer models: [17]


Computer Manufacturer

Units

Notebook Model

Battery Model

Hewlett-Packard

About 32,000

HP Pavilion: dv1000, dv8000 and zd8000
Compaq Presario: v2000 and v2400
HP Compaq: nc6110, nc6120, nc6140, nc6220, nc6230,
nx4800, nx4820, nx6110, nx6120, nx9600

Recalled batteries will have a bar code
label starting with A0, L0, L1 or GC

Toshiba

About 3,000

Satellite: A70/A75, P30/P5, M30X/M35X, M50/M55
Tecra: A3, A5, S2

n/a

Dell

About 150

Latitude: 110L
Inspiron: 1100, 1150, 5100, 5150, 5160

OU091


The National Transportation Safety Board lists other incidents involving Lithium-ion batteries:

·         On August 7, 2004, a fire destroyed some freight that included lithium-ion batteries in a unit load device (ULD) at the Federal Express Corporation (FedEx Express) hub in Memphis, Tennessee.

·         On April 28, 1999, a fire destroyed freight, including primary lithium batteries, on two cargo pallets at the Northwest Airlines cargo facility at Los Angeles International Airport.

·         On May 24, 1989, a box of 25 lithium-ion batteries that had been transported on a FedEx Express airplane caught fire in the FedEx Express freight sorting facility in Memphis.

·         On September 26, 1996, wires connected to eight lithium batteries (type unknown) apparently shorted and burned a hole in their package, which was in the Airborne Express sorting area in Wilmington, Ohio.

·         On November 3, 2000, a package of primary lithium batteries in a FedEx Express truck near Portland, Oregon, showed evidence of internal leakage and charring around one battery.

·         On April 12, 2002, a fiberboard box started smoking while it was inside a FedEx Express ULD in Indianapolis, Indiana. The box contained lithium batteries (type unknown) that had short-circuited, starting a fire and damaging the interior of the box.

·         On August 9, 2002, a lithium-ion battery in a Samsung minicomputer/Palm Pilot wrapped in bubble wrap inside a fiberboard box short-circuited, causing the bubble wrap to catch fire and start to melt.

·         On March 5, 2002, near Houston, Texas, a fiberboard box of lithium batteries (type unknown) inside an American Freightways truck was crushed when other freight fell on top of it. The batteries and box caught on fire.

·         In May 1994, while being delivered to a handling agent by road, a shipment of small lithium batteries destined for Gatwick Airport in London, England, was found emitting smoke from a Unit Loading Device.

·         In April 2004, a flashlight began smoking in a seatback pocket on a Canadian airplane. The flashlight became so hot that the flight attendants could not handle it without oven mitts. The flashlight had a primary lithium battery and had been manufactured and bought in Beijing, China.

·         On November 3, 1999, the FAA Associate Administrator for Civil Aviation Security sent a memo to several agencies, including RSPA's Associate Administrator for the Office of Hazardous Materials, identifying four incidents that had happened that year that were not on aircraft but did involve the overheating and bursting of lithium-ion batteries in automatic external defibrillators.

·         Additionally, the FAA has a record of 30 other incidents involving a variety of other types of batteries that shorted and caused damage ranging from smoke to fire and explosion.

·         On October 29, 2004, a fire and small explosion involving a 9-volt lithium-ion battery occurred on a chartered flight from the Raleigh-Durham airport in Morrisville, North Carolina, to Parkersburg, West Virginia.

·         On June 30, 2005, a package containing lithium-ion batteries was discovered at the United Parcel Service (UPS) airfreight terminal in Ontario, California. One of four battery packs within a package had caught fire and been completely destroyed during transportation.

·         In August 2004, the Consumer Product Safety Commission recalled about 28,000 lithium-ion battery packs that LG Chem Ltd. of South Korea had manufactured for Apple PowerBook computers.” [18]


5.    CONCLUSION

The battery technologies are a critical approach in decarbonization of transport and energy to help combat climate change. A low-carbon future rests on an essential, yet also problematic, technology of Lithium-ion rechargeable batteries. The market for lithium-ion batteries is projected by the industry to grow from USD 41.1 billion in 2021 to USD 116.6 billion by 2030. The prevalence of electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) is amongst the major boosters of the adoption of lithium-ion batteries, which is expected to increase further in the future.  Despite the promising growth of the Lithium-ion battery storage technology, safety remains one of the major factors of concern. Explosions of the batteries due to thermal runaway have manifested in smartphones, personal computers, as well as some electric vehicle models over the years.  The battery industry is still in its infancy, but a lot of resources and investment is going into this industry, and Lithium-ion batteries still have the potential to bring about a technology revolution.


6.    REFERENCES

[1]

A. R. Despić and J. O. Borris, "electrochemical reaction," Encyclopedia Britannica, 15 December 2011. [Online]. Available: https://www.britannica.com/science/electrochemical-reaction. [Accessed 03 April 2022].

[2]

A. Zablocki, "Fact Sheet | Energy Storage (2019)," Environmental and Energy Study Institute, 22 February 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/energy-storage-2019. [Accessed 03 April 2022].

[3]

D. H. Doughty and P. E. Roth, "A General Discussion of Li Ion Battery Safety," The Electrochemical Society, January 2012. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1149/2.f03122if. [Accessed 03 April 2022].

[4]

J. Wood, "Batteries are a key part of the energy transition. Here’s why," World Economic Forum, 15 September 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/09/batteries-lithium-ion-energy-storage-circular-economy/. [Accessed 04 April 2022].

[5]

N. Williard, W. He, C. Hendricks and M. Pecht, "Lessons Learned from the 787 Dreamliner Issue on Lithium-Ion Battery Reliability," MDPI Open Access Journals, no. 6, pp. 1-10, 2013.

[6]

F. Mou, Z. Xiao, C. Jingbo, S. Yuming, L. Jianjun, H. Xiangming and M. Zongqiang, "A case study of Japan airlines B-787 battery fire[J]," Energy Storage Science and Technology, pp. 42-46, 2014.

[7]

J. Dahn, E. Fuller, M. Obrovac and U. Vonsacken, " Thermal-stability of LixCoO2, LixNiO2 and Lamda-MnO2 and consequences for the safety of Li-ion cells," Solid State Ion, pp. 69, 265–270. , 1994.

[8]

E. Beech, "Design flaws led to 2013 lithium-ion battery fire in Boeing 787: U.S. NTSB," Reuters, 01 December 2014. [Online]. Available: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boeing-787-battery-idUSKCN0JF35G20141202. [Accessed 28 March 2022].

[9]

H. Xiang, H. Wang, C. Chen, X. Ge, S. Guo, J. Sun and W. Hu, "Thermal stability of LiPF6—Based electrolyte and effect of contact with various delithiated cathodes of Li-ion batteries," J. Power Sources, pp. 191, 575–581, 2009.

[10]

P. Sun, R. Bisschop and H. e. a. Niu, "A Review of Battery Fires in Electric Vehicles," Springer, 03 February 2020. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10694-019-00944-3. [Accessed 04 April 2022].

[11]

National Transportation Safety Board, "Highway Accident Brief," National Transportation Safety Board, Washington, DC 20594, 2018.

[12]

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), "FAA Statement on Samsung Galaxy Note 7 Devices," FAA, 08 September 2016. [Online]. Available: https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/faa-statement-samsung-galaxy-note-7-devices-0?newsId=86424. [Accessed 04 April 2022].

[13]

B. Green and S. A. F. Passenger, "Samsung Electronics Company, Ltd.: Galaxy Note 7 Crisis," Researchgate, 2017. [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/James-Orourke-7/publication/330140699_Samsung_Electronics_Company_Ltd_Galaxy_Note_7_Crisis/links/5e6903aa299bf108eacded58/Samsung-Electronics-Company-Ltd-Galaxy-Note-7-Crisis.pdf. [Accessed 04 April 2022].

[14]

A. Kharpal, "Samsung Note 7 recall: More than $14 billion wiped off shares as crisis rages on," CNBC, 12 September 2016. [Online]. Available: https://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/12/samsung-note-7-recall-more-than-14-billion-wiped-off-shares-as-crisis-rages-on.html. [Accessed 04 April 2022].

[15]

R. Kelley, "Apple recalls 1.8 million laptop batteries," CNN Money, 24 August 2006. [Online]. Available: https://money.cnn.com/2006/08/24/technology/apple_recall/index.htm. [Accessed 04 April 2022].

[16]

U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission, Lenovo and IBM Announce Recall of ThinkPad Notebook Computer Batteries Due to Fire Hazard, Washington, DC 20207: Office of Information and Public Affairs, 2006.

[17]

U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission, PC Notebook Computer Batteries Recalled Due to Fire and Burn Hazard, Washington, DC 20207: Office of Information and Public Affairs, 2008.

[18]

National Transportation Safety Board, Hazardous Materials Accident Brief, National Transportation Safety Board, 2004.

[19]

Nature, "Lithium-ion batteries need to be greener and more ethical," Nature, no. 1476-4687, 2021.